A little Selzer Iowa poll history

Codebreaker · Nov 3, 2024

In 2020 Biden was polling so far ahead of Trump people were saying Biden 413 EV's were possible, if you believed the polls.

Then Selzer dropped a Trump +7 poll.

I thought either she missed the mark hard, or everyone else was wrong.

Guess where we ended up.

Could she be wrong this time? Sure, but if Trump is anywhere below +5 in Iowa, he has lost the election pretty easily.

Codebreaker · Nov 3, 2024

What is in the Selzer poll that is devastating for Trump is, older white midwestern women are breaking for Harris by 29 points. This is why Trump is only up 5 in Kansas and 2 in Ohio, and down 12 in Nebraska's 2nd.

Extrapolate these number across the Blue Wall and you will understand why Trump is making 4 trips to NC in the last 2 days.

Trump is losing GA and NC but the numbers will not be as big as in the Blue Wall. He is going to lose Florida too, by a less then 500,000 votes. Same thing in AZ and NV Trump will lose both. If he holds Ohio, it will be by a tiny margin < .5%.

2024, It's the white women stupid.